Topic: “Poor dear … The ‘expert-ignoramus’ problem in risk management.”

TASK  

Your task is to write an opinion piece for The Australian Financial Review(https://www.afr.com) where you enlighten the readersona controversial issue in risk management.

The title of your piece:

“Poor dear … The ‘expert-ignoramus’ problem in risk management.”

Description

You must include a one-page (maximum) self-reflection where you reflect on your learning experience when writing this piece.

Risk management is a difficult task to achieve well, not the least in complex systems which suffer from high uncertainty (dynamics and emergence). Dealing with the possible, rather than the plausible or probably, is what sets risk analysts apart from others in finance.

Nevertheless, risk analysts are often trained to hatch mathematical simplifications—such as Value at Risk (VaR)—whilst appropriate for common (plausible and probable) risks, they fail catastrophically in others. The fact that the task of risk management is often put in the hands of ignoramuses—unknowing about the science of daily life, the science of behaviour, the science of complex systems, the science of thinking—is absurd on its face.  Surely, this alone makes the role and communication of uncertainty and ignorance (the antithesis of knowledge) critical to risk management. The solution is not to throw out the simplifications but to train in awareness of their limitations and the ability to adapt as required.

Make sure you are central to the opinion as the readers would like to hear about your beliefs. Make sure you make it meaningful to the readers.

You are encouraged to use your AI buddy Essaybot (https://essaybot.com) to help you learn to write and lift your standard of writing. You must includea one-page (maximum) self-reflection where you reflect on your learning experience when writing this piece, which may include difficulties in assimilating the literature, critical thinking and forming your own thoughts on the issue.

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